statistical methods

Use recursive partitioning and decision trees to guess someone's political opinions (using R with survey data)

Let’s say you meet someone at a dinner party, and you really want to know their opinion about some juicy political topic. If you’re me, you might just ask them straight up. But often, there are reasons why you can’t be so forward. Thankfully, political opinions are not randomly distributed. So if you can glean a few facts about someone, you can often predict their other, more hidden opinions. The challenge is knowing which pieces of small-talk are the most predictive of the jucier questions you can’t quite ask them.

Does Media Coverage Drive Public Support for UKIP or Does Public Support for UKIP Drive Media Coverage?

Vector autoregression (VAR) using time-series data from 2004 to 2017 provides new evidence that media coverage drives party support, and not vice-versa.